Nigeria’s Bonny Light Crude Rises to $67 as Israel–Qatar Tensions Jolt Oil Market

The price of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude climbed to $67 per barrel on Tuesday, up from $65, after Israel launched surprise strikes on Hamas-linked targets in Qatar, one of the world’s major energy producers.

The escalation in the Middle East immediately sent ripples through the global oil market, with Brent crude — the benchmark for many international grades — rising to $66.58 per barrel, over $1 above its pre-attack price of $65.

Despite the spike, prices remain well below Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel, which is pegged to an ambitious output target of 2.06 million barrels per day and an exchange rate of ₦1,500 to the US dollar.

Analysts warn that the rally could prove short-lived. OPEC+ recently confirmed it would ease production cuts from October 2025, reintroducing 137,000 barrels per day into the market. The move has raised fears of a supply glut that could drag prices below $60 per barrel.

Mazi Colman Obasi, National President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN), cautioned: “Relaxing oil cuts at this time means increasing supply, which is expected to culminate in pumping additional barrels to the market, thus causing prices to drop below $60 per barrel.”

Another market observer stressed that increased supplies could undermine Nigeria’s fiscal plans. The 2025 budget is based on oil selling at $75 per barrel, with production sustained at 2.06 million barrels per day. Any price drop would widen the government’s revenue gap and threaten implementation of key programmes.

OPEC+ has said the production adjustment will be flexible, with room to pause or reverse the decision depending on global demand, market volatility, and geopolitical developments. For Nigeria, the immediate concern is whether the temporary boost in Bonny Light prices will hold against the looming supply surge.