Petrol Price Hike Looms in Nigeria as Iran-US-Israel War Drives Crude Oil Surge

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Marketers warn pump price could hit N1,000 per litre after Dangote Refinery raises gantry price to N874

Nigerians are bracing for another spike in petrol prices as petroleum marketers warn that pump rates could climb to between N980 and N1,000 per litre following a fresh increase in the gantry price by Dangote Refinery.

The $20 billion refinery on Monday raised its gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to N874 per litre, citing volatility in the global crude oil market triggered by the escalating Iran–US–Israel conflict.

Industry operators say the adjustment will take effect nationwide between Tuesday and Wednesday, March 3 and 4, 2026.

Crude Oil Prices Climb Amid Middle East Tensions

Global oil markets have reacted sharply to the latest hostilities in the Middle East. The crisis intensified after reports that Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were killed in a strike last Friday, prompting retaliatory attacks by Iran on US allies in the region.

Iranian strikes reportedly targeted oil installations in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, disrupting operations. Shipping activities in the Strait of Hormuz were also suspended, raising fears of supply bottlenecks.

Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, one of the largest facilities operated by Saudi Aramco, was said to have been hit by a drone attack, leading to a temporary shutdown. Similarly, disruptions at QatarEnergy affected liquefied natural gas production, adding pressure to global energy markets.

By Monday, Brent crude had risen to $78.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded at $71.84 per barrel. Goldman Sachs warned that prolonged instability could push LNG prices in Europe and Asia to as high as $25 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).

Marketers Predict Steep Pump Price Adjustment

Retail petrol prices in parts of Nigeria stood between N870 and N899 per litre as of Monday night. However, industry stakeholders say those figures are unlikely to hold.

Chinedu Ukadike, spokesperson of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), said the domestic market cannot escape the ripple effects of rising global crude prices.

“There will be price fluctuation and increase. That is the ‘gain’ we are getting from the Iran-US-Israel war,” he said, urging consumers not to panic buy.

Ukadike estimated that pump prices could rise to between N980 and N1,000 per litre, depending on transportation and logistics costs.

He added that supply concerns remain minimal for now, noting that the federal government continues to provide crude oil to local refiners in naira. However, he cautioned that disruptions in global shipping routes, particularly in the Gulf region, could tighten supply chains.

Billy Gillis-Harry, National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), also linked the expected hike directly to the escalating Middle East conflict.

“You know that crude oil price is rising as hostilities are escalating in the Middle East,” he said. “If there are disruptions in operations, they are obviously going to affect global crude prices — and prices will hike.”

Pressure on Consumers

The anticipated increase is likely to deepen economic strain on households and businesses already grappling with high transportation and food costs.

While marketers insist there is no immediate threat of fuel scarcity, the prospect of petrol nearing N1,000 per litre is expected to spark renewed debate over energy pricing and Nigeria’s vulnerability to global oil shocks — despite being a major oil-producing nation.