Trump’s Pressure on India to Drop Russian Oil Crumbles Amid Iran Crisis, Global Oil Hits $100

Oil markets are under fresh pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East force India to resume purchases of Russian crude, undermining a year-long US effort to cut Moscow off from international revenue.

Under former President Donald Trump, the US sought to curb Russia’s war financing by pressuring India, one of Moscow’s largest oil buyers, through steep tariffs and sanctions on major Russian oil firms. The campaign initially succeeded: India reduced its Russian imports, favoring Middle Eastern oil.

The strategy is now unraveling. Last week’s joint US-Israeli military action against Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the critical passageway for most Gulf oil exports. Iran has threatened retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure in neighboring states, further stoking fears of supply disruptions.

Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel for the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Analysts warn that with the Gulf route effectively blocked, India has little choice but to turn back to Russian crude.

The US has granted Indian refiners a 30-day waiver to import Russian oil stranded at sea. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the move is aimed at “keeping oil flowing into the global market,” even as it continues to fund the very war chest Washington tried to deplete.

Data from analytics firm Kpler shows India imports 2.5–2.7 million barrels daily from the Gulf. With the Strait of Hormuz paralyzed, around 130 million barrels of Russian oil at sea could be redirected to Indian ports, analysts say. Sumit Ritolia, a Kpler research analyst, predicts India may return to pre-sanctions levels, sourcing 40–45% of its crude from Russia.

Experts caution, however, that this is a temporary fix. Shipments from Russia take longer to reach India than Gulf oil, and the waiver comes with strict limitations. Farwa Aamer, director at the Asia Society Policy Institute, notes it “may offer temporary relief but cannot fully meet market energy demands.”

India maintains roughly eight weeks of total crude and petroleum product inventory and plans to supplement supplies from alternative sources. Meanwhile, the US hints at potentially easing further sanctions on Russian oil to stabilize global supplies.

As analysts warn of ongoing strain on global oil markets, India’s pivot back to Russian crude highlights the fragility of international energy strategies amid escalating regional conflicts.