Nigeria’s Crude Oil Prices Surge as Global War Pushes Bonny Light Up by $6.13 Per Barrel

Nigeria’s crude oil market has recorded a sharp rally, with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) raising official selling prices across all 37 crude grades for May loading cargoes, driven by escalating global energy tensions linked to the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

The latest adjustment shows Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude grade, jumping by $6.13 per barrel compared to April, while Forcados increased by $7.01 per barrel, according to market data cited by Oilprice.com. The development reflects a broader surge in global oil benchmarks as geopolitical risks ripple through energy markets.

Brent crude has also crossed the $110 per barrel mark, fuelled by fears that the conflict could stretch into a prolonged crisis. Analysts say additional pressure is coming from structural changes within OPEC, including the United Arab Emirates’ reported exit, which has raised fresh uncertainty around Middle East supply stability.

Market data from the Central Bank of Nigeria shows Bonny Light had traded around $74 per barrel before tensions escalated in late February. Since then, prices have climbed steadily, with traders reacting to fears of supply disruption in key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.

The surge has positioned oil-exporting countries, including Nigeria, to benefit from windfall earnings. Analysts note that rising energy revenues are strengthening currencies in several producing nations, while import-dependent economies face mounting pressure from higher costs.

Financial strategists from JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank have pointed to energy-linked currencies such as the Norwegian krone and Australian dollar as potential beneficiaries of the global shift. Kazakhstan, heavily reliant on crude exports, has emerged as the strongest performer among global currencies, gaining about 10 percent in two months.

However, the ripple effects are uneven. India, which depends on imports for nearly 89 percent of its crude oil needs, has seen its currency weaken by about 3.5 percent against the US dollar since the conflict began.

Beyond currencies, the oil sector is witnessing a wave of corporate activity. Shell has agreed to acquire Canadian producer ARC Resources in a $16.4 billion deal aimed at boosting output in North America’s shale basin. In South America, Colombia’s Ecopetrol is expanding its footprint in Brazil, while Italy’s ENI has reported a non-commercial outcome from its offshore Libya exploration well.

Meanwhile, Chevron is nearing completion of a $1 billion asset sale involving its Singapore refinery stake, signalling continued restructuring among global energy majors.

As crude prices remain volatile, analysts warn that sustained geopolitical tensions could continue to reshape global energy flows, with both opportunities and risks for producers like Nigeria.