China’s Birth Rate Hits Record Low as Population Shrinks Again, Despite 5% Economic Growth

China’s birth rate plunged to a record low in 2025, as the nation’s population fell for the fourth straight year, official data has revealed. The decline comes even as the world’s second-largest economy met its growth target, underscoring a widening demographic crisis that could shape China’s future for decades.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported the birth rate dropped to 5.63 births per 1,000 people in 2025, down from 6.39 in 2023. The numbers suggest that a slight increase in births in 2024 was a temporary blip rather than a reversal of the long-term trend that began in 2016.

Population Falls by 3.39 Million

The latest figures show China recorded 7.92 million births last year, while 11.31 million deaths were registered — meaning the population shrank by 3.39 million. Despite the decline, China remains the world’s second-largest country by population, with about 1.4 billion people, trailing only India.

Economic Growth Meets Target, But Q4 Slows

While the demographic picture darkens, China’s economy grew 5% in 2025, matching the government’s official target of “around 5%.”

Growth was driven largely by a surge in exports, which helped offset weak domestic consumption and ongoing trade tensions with the United States. China recorded a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, even as the US continued its on-and-off trade war with Beijing.

However, the data also showed a slowdown in the final quarter, with GDP expanding only 4.5% year-on-year, the weakest quarterly growth since late 2022.

Officials described the economic performance as “remarkable stability,” despite what they called a “complex and severe situation” internationally and growing challenges at home.

Demographic Time Bomb: Aging Population and Shrinking Workforce

The declining birth rate and shrinking population intensify a long-term challenge for China: a shrinking workforce and a growing elderly population that will put pressure on pensions and public services.

China’s demographic shift is partly linked to the legacy of the state-enforced “one-child” policy, which was ended in 2016. Despite new policies aimed at encouraging larger families, the country has failed to reverse the trend.

Experts also point to broader social changes seen in other East Asian countries — such as Japan and South Korea — including higher education levels, delayed marriage, rapid urbanisation, and the rising cost of raising children.

What This Means for China’s Future

The 2025 data highlights a deepening demographic problem that could slow China’s long-term economic growth and shift global economic dynamics. Even as Beijing celebrates meeting its growth targets, the population decline underscores how the country’s biggest challenge may not be trade wars or exports — but a shrinking and ageing nation.