Fears grow that political realignment could destabilise fragile peace between rival emirs

Speculation over a planned defection by Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is fuelling fresh anxiety around the long-running Kano emirship crisis, one of Nigeria’s most delicate intersections of politics and tradition.

Political insiders say the rumoured move has unsettled an already fragile balance between supporters of Emir Muhammadu Sanusi II and loyalists of the 15th Emir of Kano, Aminu Ado Bayero, raising concerns that old wounds could reopen in the north-west state.

The reports have also intensified internal political tension in Kano, particularly between Governor Yusuf’s supporters and followers of his political benefactor, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

Secret meeting with Tinubu adds to speculation

Sources say Yusuf’s alleged defection plan was among the reasons he held a closed-door meeting with President Bola Tinubu earlier this week. The governor is said to have postponed his move several times but has reportedly fixed a new date to formally switch from the NNPP to the APC.

Neither the governor nor the Presidency has publicly confirmed the discussions.

A crisis rooted in politics and law

The Kano emirship dispute dates back to 2020, when then-Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, under the APC, dethroned Sanusi and later installed Aminu Ado Bayero following the restructuring of the emirate system. The move was widely criticised and deepened political and social divisions across the state.

When Yusuf assumed office in 2023, his administration repealed the emirate law, restored a single Kano Emirate and reinstated Sanusi. Bayero was asked to vacate the palace, a decision applauded by Sanusi’s supporters but condemned by critics as executive overreach.

Bayero has since maintained his claim to the throne, residing at the Nassarawa mini-palace under heavy security while challenging his removal in court.

In March, the Court of Appeal in Abuja urged all parties to maintain caution pending the Supreme Court’s determination. Since then, the matter has remained unresolved.

Why Yusuf’s defection worries Kano

Against this backdrop, the rumoured defection is being viewed by many in Kano as more than a political shift. Analysts warn it could weaken the forces that restored Sanusi to the throne and embolden those seeking Bayero’s reinstatement.

Supporters of Sanusi fear that a change in political alignment could expose the Emir to renewed pressure, while Bayero’s loyalists see a possible opening for fresh legal and political manoeuvres.

Observers also point to the implications for Kwankwaso, whose influence was central to Yusuf’s emergence as governor and the restoration of Sanusi.

Security risks flagged by analysts

Speaking on Arise Television, political editor Sumner Sambo warned that Yusuf’s defection could deepen the crisis and pose serious security risks.

He described the situation as creating “two power centres” in Kano, with Bayero perceived by some as a “federal emir” and Sanusi as a “state emir”.

Sambo cautioned that Sanusi’s limited security protection could become a major concern if political winds shift, adding that a renewed attempt to reinstate Bayero could spark unrest.

Analysts blame weak institutions

Public affairs analyst Nduka Odo of Peaceland University said the fate of both emirs now appears tied to political alignment between the state and federal governments, exposing what he described as systemic failures.

He criticised the judiciary for failing to decisively resolve the dispute, warning that prolonged uncertainty has allowed political interests to overshadow traditional authority.

Rights group CRRAN echoed similar concerns, blaming judicial delays for worsening insecurity and eroding public confidence in the justice system.

With Kano remaining politically volatile, many fear that a misstep could turn a political realignment into a wider crisis as Nigeria edges closer to the 2027 elections.