Fuel price may drop nationwide as imported petrol becomes cheaper than Dangote refinery rate

Petrol prices across Nigeria could fall in the coming days as the cost of imported fuel now undercuts the gantry price set by the Dangote Refinery, according to petroleum marketers.

The President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Abubakar Maigandi, disclosed this in an interview, pointing to new pricing data that shows imported petrol is significantly cheaper than locally refined supply from the Dangote facility.

Figures released by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria indicate that the average landing cost of imported petrol is about ₦77 per litre lower than Dangote Refinery’s gantry price of ₦799 per litre.

The development has created a pricing dilemma for marketers, especially as Dangote Refinery recently urged operators to avoid purchasing coastal petrol, arguing that it was more expensive.

Despite the debate, retail pump prices in Abuja currently range between ₦839 and ₦905 per litre. However, checks in Lagos show some filling stations have already reduced prices to around ₦817 per litre — lower than the ₦839 per litre sold at MRS stations backed by Dangote Refinery.

This trend is fuelling expectations that a broader nationwide price adjustment may follow.

Maigandi explained that while many marketers still rely heavily on Dangote’s supply, market forces and logistics costs largely determine final pump prices across the country.

“For those buying more than two million litres, they get a ₦20 discount per litre. Those buying five million litres and above get ₦25 off. They still buy at the base price of ₦799,” he said.

He added that about 80 per cent of IPMAN members currently source their products directly from Dangote Refinery, noting that distance and transportation costs affect what consumers pay in different cities.

“In Lagos, they sell between ₦820 and ₦825. In Abuja, it goes for about ₦870 to ₦875 because of logistics. Once there is more competition from other refineries and imports, prices will likely drop again,” he added.

In January, Dangote Refinery raised its gantry price from ₦699 to ₦799 per litre, a move that triggered an increase in retail petrol prices nationwide.

Last December, Aliko Dangote had indicated that his 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery would push pump prices down to about ₦739 per litre, but this did not reflect in most filling stations across the country.

As of Monday evening, crude oil prices were trading at $64.36 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate and $69.15 per barrel for Brent crude.

Marketers say the current pricing shift may signal the return of competition-driven price moderation in Nigeria’s downstream sector.