Trump’s New Sanctions on Russian Oil Send Shockwaves Through Moscow – But China and India Hold the Key

US President Donald Trump’s latest sanctions targeting Russia’s energy lifeline are threatening to hit the Kremlin’s war finances hard — but the true impact may depend on how China and India respond.

The sanctions, unveiled last week, directly target Russia’s two biggest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil. The move, described by Trump as “tremendous,” is designed to choke off billions in revenue funding Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Early signs suggest the pressure is being felt. Some Indian and Chinese oil firms have already begun cancelling shipments ahead of a November 21 compliance deadline, according to industry insiders. Together, the two Asian giants import up to 4.5 million barrels of Russian crude daily — much of it from the newly blacklisted firms.

But analysts warn that the initial retreat could be temporary. Moscow has long relied on a complex network of middlemen and a so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers to disguise the origins of its oil and bypass Western oversight.

“How hard these sanctions bite will ultimately be decided in Asia,” said Richard Jones, a crude oil analyst at Energy Aspects. He estimates that up to 2.6 million barrels per day bound for India and China could dry up once the deadline hits.

For India, the sanctions pose a delicate balancing act — between its dependence on discounted Russian oil and its growing strategic partnership with Washington.

New Delhi’s largest private refiner, Reliance Industries, said it was “fully committed” to complying with applicable sanctions, signaling a possible reduction in Russian imports. Data shows Reliance purchased more than 181 million barrels from Russia between January and September this year.

India’s state-owned Indian Oil Corporation has also pledged to follow the new U.S. restrictions, while Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar criticized the “selective application of principles” in global trade — a veiled jab at Washington’s approach.

Analysts say India’s energy security and diplomatic balancing will determine how far it can go in appeasing both Moscow and Washington. A gradual reduction in Russian oil purchases could help secure a much-anticipated trade deal with the Trump administration after U.S. tariffs battered Indian exports.

China’s Calculus: Protecting Interests Without Abandoning Moscow

For China, Russia’s most critical economic partner, the situation is equally complex. Several state-owned Chinese energy giants have reportedly canceled some crude orders, wary of potential secondary sanctions that could disrupt their access to global financial systems.

Yet Beijing’s strategic interest in maintaining its “no limits” partnership with Moscow remains strong.

“China will not completely ignore U.S. pressure, but it won’t give Washington everything it wants either,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center.

Analysts suggest that while major state firms may temporarily pause purchases, smaller “teapot” refineries could continue buying Russian oil through intermediaries — keeping a flow of discounted crude alive, albeit at lower volumes.

Behind the geopolitical maneuvering lies Russia’s vast “shadow fleet” — a secretive network of hundreds of ships designed to keep its oil exports moving despite sanctions.

S&P Global recently identified 940 vessels involved in this clandestine operation, a 45% increase over the past year. These ships, often owned through shell companies, enable Russia to disguise oil shipments’ true origins and reroute them through third-party traders.

“It’s just a changing of names and redirection,” said Kpler oil analyst Muyu Xu. “We would expect similar things to happen again.”

But experts say these covert operations come at a cost, reducing profits and raising risks for Moscow.

“The real wildcard isn’t the oil traders — it’s how aggressively Washington enforces these sanctions,” said Clayton Seigle of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

With India cautious, China calculating, and Russia maneuvering through murky waters, Trump’s latest sanctions may mark a turning point — but not yet a full stop — in Moscow’s wartime oil economy.