Xi–Trump Summit: Why Beijing Holds the Upper Hand Ahead of High-Stakes Meeting

Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to meet US President Donald Trump this week in what analysts are calling a pivotal test of power and diplomacy — one that Beijing believes it has already won.

The much-anticipated meeting, scheduled for Thursday on the sidelines of a global summit in South Korea, marks the first face-to-face encounter between the two leaders since Trump’s return to the White House. While the official goal is to ease trade tensions, the symbolism may matter more than any deal — China wants to be seen negotiating on equal footing with the United States.

After years of tariffs, sanctions, and technology restrictions, Beijing has adapted to a new economic landscape. Trump’s renewed trade measures, targeting everything from Chinese shipping to advanced tech, have prompted China to respond with resilience — tightening export controls on rare earth minerals and pushing for industrial self-reliance in critical sectors like semiconductors.

“China is very calm in facing all these conflicts and difficulties set up by the United States,” said Wang Wen, dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University. “The US is still a major partner, but among China’s landscape, it is losing its importance.”

Despite slowing growth, China’s leadership projects quiet confidence. Its broad global trade network and control over strategic resources provide leverage that few nations can match. Another Renmin University scholar, Wang Yiwei, noted that Trump’s aggressive policies have only reinforced Beijing’s belief that “the US is not the dominant power anymore.”

There are growing hints of progress behind the scenes. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently indicated that China might delay its rare earth export restrictions in exchange for Washington shelving its proposed 100% tariffs and extending a fragile truce. Beijing, however, has not officially confirmed any such concession.

For Xi, the calculus is strategic. Analysts say he could offer tactical compromises if it leads to tariff relief, economic stability, and enhanced global prestige.

Thursday’s meeting will reunite two of the world’s most assertive leaders — both known for their nationalistic agendas and combative styles. Their last face-off, at the G20 Summit in Osaka in 2019, ended in a show of mutual respect despite deep economic rivalry.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi framed this week’s encounter as one between “two world-class leaders” who share a history of “mutual respect.”

But no matter the outcome, Beijing may already have achieved its broader objective: the optics of Xi sitting across from Trump as an equal underscore China’s ascent from trade adversary to global heavyweight — a narrative Beijing has long sought to cement.