Nigeria’s Oil Production Fell in July, but OPEC and NUPRC Report Different Figures

Nigeria’s crude oil production declined in July, but conflicting figures from OPEC and the country’s upstream regulator have raised questions about the exact volume produced during the month.

OPEC reported that Nigeria produced an average of 1.546 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, down from 1.583 million bpd recorded in June. The figures point to a monthly decline of about 37,000 barrels per day.

Nigeria’s upstream petroleum regulator, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), reported a higher production level. Its data put July output at about 1.67 million bpd, compared with approximately 1.74 million bpd in June.

The difference does not necessarily mean that one of the figures is wrong. OPEC’s production estimate is based on secondary sources, while the NUPRC figure is drawn from Nigeria’s own production data, meaning the two organisations use different data sources and methodologies.

Despite the fall in output, Nigeria reportedly remained above its OPEC production quota for the third consecutive month. The development is significant for a country that has been under pressure to raise crude production and maximise oil revenues.

The NUPRC attributed part of the July decline to operational challenges affecting the Erha and Akpo oil fields. Disruptions at major producing assets can quickly affect national output because of the scale of production linked to such fields.

The July data therefore tells a more complicated story than a simple drop in oil production. Nigeria produced less crude than it did in June, yet remained above its OPEC quota, while OPEC and NUPRC continue to report noticeably different estimates of the country’s actual output.

For policymakers and investors, the gap between the datasets also highlights the importance of understanding how Nigeria’s oil production figures are compiled. The source and methodology behind the numbers can significantly influence how the country’s performance is assessed.