Nigeria’s Exports to Africa Surge to N10.72tn as Oil, Naira Effect Drive Growth

Nigeria’s exports to other African countries rose sharply to N10.72tn in the first half of 2026, representing a 122.26 per cent increase from the N4.82tn recorded during the same period in 2025.

The increase, however, has raised questions over how much of the growth reflects higher volumes of goods traded and how much is linked to the naira’s depreciation. Economists and trade experts say the figures, when measured in naira, may give an inflated impression of Nigeria’s export performance.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ foreign trade reports for the first two quarters of 2026 showed that petroleum-related products continued to dominate Nigeria’s exports to Africa. Crude oil, refined petroleum products, gas products, electricity and urea accounted for an estimated 94.75 per cent of exports to the continent, worth about N10.15tn.

That represented an increase from the 90.24 per cent share recorded in the first half of 2025, when the same broad group of products was valued at about N4.35tn. The oil and gas value chain consequently grew by 133.36 per cent between the two periods, outpacing the 122.26 per cent overall growth in exports to Africa.

By comparison, identifiable non-oil products such as cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations declined from about N309.46bn in H1 2025 to N296.61bn in H1 2026. Their share of Nigeria’s exports to Africa also fell from 6.42 per cent to 2.77 per cent.

The commodity estimates were derived from the leading product categories published by the NBS because the agency does not separately provide a complete product-by-product breakdown of Nigeria’s exports to Africa. The trend comes as the Federal Government continues to promote non-oil exports, while the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has emerged as a major supplier of refined products to regional markets.

Dr Ayo Teriba, Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, cautioned that naira-denominated figures should not be interpreted as evidence of an equivalent increase in the real value of exports. He described the effect as a “naira illusion”, where currency depreciation and inflation make the naira value of trade appear to rise significantly even when the underlying dollar value has changed little.

Teriba also linked part of the recent export increase to the emergence of the Dangote refinery, which began operations around 2024. Trade expert Marcel Mba, CEO of Alpine Supply Chain Solutions, similarly attributed much of the increase to refined petroleum products and petrochemicals, while warning against assuming that non-oil exports were responsible for the bulk of the growth.

Nigeria’s longer-term figures show how dramatically the naira value of exports to Africa has changed. Exports stood at N1.38tn in H1 2020 before falling to N963bn in 2021 and N904.05bn in 2022. They recovered to N1.31tn in 2023, climbed to N4.21tn in 2024 and reached N4.82tn in 2025 before rising to N10.72tn in 2026.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has also highlighted the weakness of Nigeria’s manufacturing base. It reported that manufactured goods accounted for just 0.9 per cent of the country’s intra-African trade in Q1 2026, down from 2.0 per cent in Q3 2025.

The concern is particularly significant as Nigeria seeks to take greater advantage of the African Continental Free Trade Area. Analysts argue that sustained growth in regional trade will require stronger manufacturing capacity, greater domestic value addition and reduced dependence on crude oil and petroleum products.

The concentration of exports was also evident in Q2 2026. Nigeria exported N6.65tn worth of goods to Africa during the quarter, with Togo, South Africa, Ivory Coast, Ghana and Egypt accounting for 74.75 per cent of the total. Crude petroleum alone contributed N3.23tn, while gas oil, kerosene-type jet fuel and ordinary motor spirit were also among the leading products.

The figures underline the rapid expansion of Nigeria’s trade with the continent but also highlight the challenge of translating export growth into broader industrial diversification. As regional markets expand, the composition of Nigeria’s exports will remain a key measure of whether the country is building a more diversified trade base or simply recording higher petroleum and naira-denominated values.