Dangote Predicts Africa Will Meet Most Fuel Needs Locally by 2030, Unveils $16bn Kenya Refinery

Nigerian billionaire businessman Aliko Dangote has projected that most African countries will become self-sufficient in refined fuel by 2030 as he prepares to launch a $16 billion oil refinery project in Kenya.

Dangote is scheduled to break ground on the proposed refinery in Lamu, along Kenya’s Indian Ocean coast, on Wednesday. The facility is designed to process 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day and is expected to take approximately 30 months to complete.

Speaking to journalists in Nairobi on Tuesday, Dangote said the project was part of a broader effort to transform Africa from an exporter of raw materials into a continent that produces and sells finished goods.

“By 2030, the majority of African countries will be self-sufficient. It does not matter where it is refined, but it should be in the African continent, on the soil of Africa,” he said in response to a question about when Africa could end its dependence on fuel imports from outside the continent.

The proposed refinery has already attracted opposition from environmental groups, including Greenpeace, while a legal dispute over land rights is also ongoing. However, Dangote dismissed concerns surrounding the project, saying such disputes should not prevent development.

“There’s actually no problem with these sort of cases,” he said. “There are people who don’t want the development of Africa.”

Refinery to Source Crude From Multiple Regions

Addressing questions about crude oil supplies, Dangote said the Kenyan refinery would source raw materials from several locations, including the Middle East and the United States, while preparing to accommodate increased production from countries such as Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique.

He argued that Africa needed to invest in refining capacity now rather than wait for its oil-producing countries to expand their output, particularly as the continent’s population and energy demand continue to grow.

“Are we going to wait until (Africa has) one quarter of the world’s population before we start thinking of what to do? We have to start addressing that issue today,” he said, referring to concerns about future fuel supplies and US President Donald Trump’s threats to restrict diesel exports.

Dangote described the 700,000-barrel-per-day facility as a significant investment for East Africa but said it would represent only an initial step towards meeting the region’s future energy needs.

“When you talk about 700,000 barrels per day, it’s actually small. For the region, it’s a big refinery, it’s a big investment, but it is a start-up,” he said.

He added that the refinery was expected to attract other industries and stimulate economic activity in the surrounding area.

“This refinery is not all we are going to do there. It’s just the start… You will see the number of industries that will come around the refinery,” Dangote said.

The businessman said Africa’s broader economic challenge was its continued dependence on exporting raw materials at low prices while importing finished products at significantly higher costs.

“The biggest problem is that we export raw materials at maybe 5 to 10 percent of its value, and then we end up buying at 100 percent of its value,” he said.

He added that exporting unprocessed resources meant jobs were created outside the continent, while importing finished goods limited opportunities for local employment and industrial growth.